冰与火之歌

高盛重申：年末黄金价格将达到每盎司4900美元！_我的网站

A |     Amel Safi did not say goodbye to her brothers before she fled Gaza because it would have made it harder to leave, the 22-year-old Palestinian told ABC News.Following Israel's warning to evacuate northern Gaza Friday ahead of a potential ground incursion, Safi said her mother came to her and asked her to pack her "most precious" items in a small bag and the women in her family went to Khan Yunis, a city in the southern Gaza Strip, while the men stayed behind."I was crying from the moment that my mum told me I have to prepare my bag. I feel like I couldn't talk with my brothers because I'm going to cry more," Safi told ABC News in a Zoom interview on Friday. "I don't want to see them because I know if I have seen them, I would cry more.""I don't like even my enemy to experience such a thing," she added.Safi said she and her family have been living in fear amid Israeli airstrikes retaliating for Hamas' brutal surprise attack last weekend. As of Sunday, at least 2,670 people have been killed and an estimated 9,600 more injured in the strikes in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health."Every single night, every single moment, we are afraid to be bombed, to be killed," Safi said.The Israeli military early Friday told all residents north of Wadi Gaza -- 1.1 million people -- to evacuate their homes within 24 hours and move south. Safi said her family wasn't sure what to do following the notice. Ultimately, the men in her family decided to stay while the women and her youngest brother went to Khan Yunis, where they hoped they would be safer, Safi said."A house that my father built, like he did everything to build, and he tried his best to give us a place to feel safe -- everything in a moment, we may lose it," Safi said. "We are very afraid and we are very sad. I couldn't believe the situation. I couldn't believe it. I feel like, okay, am I dreaming? Am I in a nightmare?"Safi said she's staying at a place in Khan Yunis with between 12 to 15 people. Friends of her siblings asked if they could stay with them but they didn't have enough room. Other evacuees are having trouble finding places to stay and many are sleeping on the streets, she said."You can see women holding their children and they're crying over them," she said. "They can't feed them. They can't find a place to feel safe."They brought food with them, but Safi said the shelves at supermarkets near them are nearly empty."Even if you have the money, you wouldn't be able to buy the things that you really need," she said.In the wake of the evacuation notice, the Israel Defense Forces said Saturday they plan to implement a wide-ranging offensive, including "significant ground operations," and will "broadly attack Gaza City very soon."With her family now separated amid the raging conflict, Safi said she hopes she will get to see her brothers and father again."I will never be able to forget what happened today. It's just a nightmare," she said. "I wish someone can come to me and wake me up."。    　　周二（8月25日），高盛重申了其对黄金价格的预测，预计到2026年底金价将达到每盎司4900美元。这一预测主要受到看涨期权需求增加的推动，这些期权可能放大金价在关键行权价附近的波动。
　　当日，全球最大的实物黄金ETF之一SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）上涨0.79%，交易价格为426.69美元。　　市场普遍看涨情绪　　高盛将黄金价格预估为每盎司4900美元的举措反映出市场普遍看涨情绪，这主要得益于央行对实物黄金的大规模买入，以及西方私人投资者对黄金ETF投资可能大幅增加，尤其是在美联储稳定利率路径之后。　　近期，现货黄金价格一度突破4680美元，创下自五月中旬以来的最高水平，凸显了在宏观经济不确定性加剧背景下，黄金作为避险资产的需求不断上升。

B | 　　该行分析指出，衍生品市场正成为新的价格推升因素，投资者正越来越多地使用黄金看涨期权来对冲宏观经济风险。

C | 这种期权需求的上升可能导致金价出现更大幅度的上涨或下跌，尤其是在金价接近关键行权价位时。　　当前市场情绪仍保持乐观，黄金ETF的大量流入进一步支撑了这一趋势，而未来经济数据以及美联储的表态可能对其产生更大影响。　　除了高盛外，其他投行也纷纷对黄金的未来走势做出了预测。

D | 　　瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，全球债务水平攀升，再加上美元持续走弱，是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，而如今这些担忧再度卷土重来，“在我们看来，未来12个月，上述因素将推动黄金价格上涨至每盎司5400美元。”　　花旗策略师Dirk Willer将未来一年黄金看向每盎司5000至6000美元，核心依据是财政部干预、美债期限溢价失控风险、美元偏弱以及“去美元化”交易重启。花旗认为，随着收益率曲线长端得到控制，黄金仍有上涨空间，“投资者可能需要结束收益率曲线陡峭化交易，重新转向黄金，并卖出美元。

E | ”　　德意志银行给出的年末基准目标为4700美元—5100美元，依托央行购金与ETF回流两股非价格敏感需求，黄金ETF过去30天净流入约150万盎司、年内累计增加约400万盎司，而2026年第一季度央行购金金额达到388.8亿美元。　　摩根士丹利分析师Amy Gower发布是报告称，黄金价格已提前达到其第四季度目标价位，并可能在2027年攀升至5000美元以上，尽管这一过程可能会充满波动。该行表示，宏观经济状况的改善正在提振对黄金ETF的需求，因为美联储加息的预期逐渐消退，美元走弱，而央行的强劲购买和更强劲的实物需求也在支撑金价。（文章来源：财联社）。

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