世界杯刚踢完不到两周，国际足联就急着搞大新闻了。北京时间7月28日，国际足联官方宣布成立一家名为“FIFA Forward Enterprise”（FFE）的新公司，将整合（consolidating）包括世界杯、俱乐部世界杯等核心赛事的全部商业运营，然后出售最多21%的股份给私人投资者，融资最多42亿美元，作为“FIFA Fast-Forward Programme”（FFFP）的资金流发放给旗下各成员协会。    Scott Ritter, a military analyst and former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, offers his views on the West's motivation to provide continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine, the reasons why the US and EU are choosing to fuel the hostilities instead of encouraging Kiev to negotiate, and reflects on how long Ukraine's beneficiaries in the West will be able to afford such expenses.,Sputnik: The European Union on Wednesday moved to pour additional 500 million euros into Ukraine's military. In a statement on Twitter, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that EU states remain "focused and steadfast" in their support of Kiev. What goals are the US and EU pursuing by pouring more money into the Ukrainian military?,Scott Ritter: The hope is to transform the conflict that is ongoing in Ukraine as a result of the Russian special military operation into a protracted conflict that can lead to a stalemate that would result in significant Russian costs, both in terms of manpower and military equipment, but also financial costs, and thereby weaken Russia. Ultimately what they are visualizing would be a Ukraine strong enough to evict Russia from its borders.,It's not possible, this is fantasy in the extreme, but it's politically inspired fantasy, meaning that the United States and its European allies have invested so much political capital into propping up the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian economy that even though most sound analysts understand that not only is Ukraine losing the conflict, but they can never win the conflict. Politically, Western politicians cannot divorce themselves from these policies. So in order to maintain a public perception at home of the chance of a Ukrainian victory, they will continue to squander the wealth of their respective nations.,Sputnik: Why are Western states prolonging the hostilities despite the growing discontent of their populations with economic problems?,Scott Ritter: There's an old saying in the United States that I believe translates into most politics: “when you're explaining, you're losing.” And right now, these politicians would have to explain to their constituents why they were wrong about Ukraine, why they were wrong about Russia. And especially here in the United States, we're dealing with the lead-up to very critical midterm elections. No politician wants to be explaining anything to anybody. They want to be shaping perceptions that build upon past performances. This is all about domestic politics. This has nothing to do with reality.,Sputnik: How dangerous is the decision to provide Ukraine with fighter jets?,Scott Ritter: This is just a fantasy. The people coming up with this apparently are not pilots. They've watched, perhaps, one too many Top Gun movies, and they think that you could just take a pilot, put him or her into any airframe, and have that airframe perform viably in combat situations. Any effort to take a Ukrainian pilot and put that Ukrainian pilot into an American or European fighter with minimal training and then have that fighter employed in combat operations in Ukraine against the Russian Air Force would 100% of the time end up with the Western fighter jet being shot down.,I don't mean to be rude here, but this is a very stupid idea. But we're talking about politics, not sound policy. So it sounds good for a politician to be telling his or her constituents that we are providing the Ukrainians with the best equipment possible to include the top of the line fighter aircraft. What they really should be saying is we are guaranteeing that every Ukrainian pilot we train will die at the hands of the Russian Air Force, because that's what the ultimate outcome will be.,Russia's Special Operation in UkraineUS, Allies Weigh Possibility of Training Ukrainian Pilots20 July, 16:55 GMT,The thing about, especially American, generals is that they are political animals. They didn't get that fourth star necessarily because of their military competence. They got it because they impressed a politician with their political acumen. And so what we have is a general playing politics, a general who is saying what the politicians want to hear. And that's not what his role is. His role is to provide sound military assessment, military advice to the politicians.,But if an American military officer did that today, they couldn't agree with anything that the Biden administration or the US Congress was seeking to do in Ukraine, and therefore they would never get promoted. They would never get a good job. I don't like to denigrate serving military officers, but this is a political decision, not a military decision, even though the man making it wears a military uniform.,Sputnik: Can the West collectively really afford such spending now, at a time of harsh polarization and soaring prices?,Scott Ritter: No, they can't afford it. And we have some nations that are starting to realize this. The German defense minister, who is very hawkish against Russia, has acknowledged that Germany simply has no more weapons to give and they're not in a position to build new weapons. They're worrying about other economic realities. The same holds true with the United States.,US, UK Want to Turn Russia Against Europe by Supplying Ukraine With Weapons, Lavrov Tells Sputnik20 July, 08:51 GMT,At some point time in time, we are going to run out of materiel to give to Ukraine. I read somewhere that with all the HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems we're providing to Ukraine, we're also providing Ukraine with one third of the ammunition stockpiles for the HIMARS, meaning that we, the United States, only have two thirds of our ammunition stores available if we had to go to war, which means we will run out of ammunition.,This is insane, literally insane to be sacrificing the national security of the United States or of a European nation so that politicians can look and sound good for the next couple of weeks. But it will not change the equation on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Army is in an impossible situation. They literally cannot recover from the debacle that has befallen them.,Russia's Special Operation in UkraineScoop: NATO Doesn’t Trust Ukraine With HIMARS, Operating Advanced Artillery Themselves, Source Says21 July, 10:07 GMT,The sad thing is that Ukrainian leaders are buying into the fiction provided by the West of if they just get more weapons, they can successfully defend against Russia. This means that more Ukrainian soldiers are going to die, more Russian soldiers are going to die, and tragically, more Ukrainian civilians are going to suffer.,Sputnik: Leaders of the Group of Seven recently pledged to stand with Ukraine "for as long as it takes." How feasible is this pledge?,Scott Ritter: When the Group of Seven made that, one of the leaders was a guy named Boris Johnson. He's not the leader anymore. The other guy was a gentleman whose last name was Draghi. He's not the leader anymore. I think as the summer and the winter come along, more and more of these leaders are going to be removed from office because it's an unsustainable policy. Politicians have a proclivity for saying things that have no basis in reality. It's very inexpensive for a politician to say "we are going to support you forever.",WorldG7 States Pledge to Provide Ukraine With Military, Diplomatic Aid for as Long as Needed28 June, 11:25 GMT,Forever in what sense? Boris Johnson is not supporting them forever – he's out of power. Draghi is not supporting them forever – he's out of power. And just about everybody who was on that stage at the G7 meeting will be out of power. Suddenly, we have a whole new definition of what "forever" means. It means “not now, not anymore.”。听上去，这完全是一次出于商业目的的常规决策，但实际上呢？综合国际足联的官方声明，以及国际足联发言人对外证实的信息，华尔街金融巨头摩根大通将担任该项目的顾问——这一机构曾在2021年参与欧洲超级联赛的融资工作。投资机构“Thrive Eternal”将是该项目的领投方，它的创始人是41岁的美国商人约书亚·库什纳（Joshua Kushner）。他的哥哥是贾雷德·库什纳（Jared Kushner），他的嫂子是伊万卡·特朗普（Ivanka Trump）——美国总统特朗普的大女儿。

B | 话说到这儿，好像开始有那味儿了……贾雷德·库什纳（左）约书亚·库什纳（右）贾雷德·库什纳与伊万卡·特朗普全家因凡蒂诺将FFE描绘成“足球在全球范围内的民主化”，但最终操盘的核心团队是华尔街的金融巨鳄+美国私募基金巨头+与特朗普家族密切相关的资本，看上去反差感十足。国际足联承诺未来四年的发展资金总额超过100亿美元，一共分三层发放。第一层是新的FFFP特别资金，每个成员协会可“有选择性地”提取2000万美元的“即时资金”，用于支持“特殊项目”。第二层是常规FFFP拨款，从目前的800万美元直接涨到下一个世界杯周期的2000万美元。

C | 第三层是后续周期继续加码：2031-2034年周期每个国家2200万美元，到2035-2038年周期达到2400万美元——2023-2026年周期的三倍。国际足联旗下211个成员协会，多数严重依赖国际足联拨款生存。因凡蒂诺此举将国际足联的利益与旗下成员协会的利益进一步绑定，逻辑也很简单——只要投出赞成票，支持资金马上到位。时间点也选得巧妙：赶在世界杯的余温犹在之时，让各家忙着数钱的协会为了更大的利益投下赞成票。看着这一连串庞大的数字，或许让人觉得FFE将是国际足联为了大幅提升经济收益的革命性尝试。但一个颇为讽刺的问题是：国际足联真的缺钱吗？美加墨世界杯周期，国际足联预计收入150亿美元，超过此前130亿美元的目标，是卡塔尔世界杯周期的两倍——扩军后的世界杯加上世俱杯，吸金能力已经是历史级的了。

D | 既然国际足联不“那么”缺钱，那背后的原因便指向某些个人的经济利益和对于权力的渴望。一旦这一方案全面落地，世界杯的进一步扩军几乎是必然的，从48到64可能只是一眨眼的事。同样的事情，也可能在世俱杯和各项女足赛事上加以应用。NFL总裁罗杰·古德尔英国媒体此前爆料：FFE可能由因凡蒂诺亲自掌舵，年薪参照NFL总裁罗杰·古德尔（Roger Goodell）——此君在任上争议不断，每年选秀大会登台便被狂嘘，但这不妨碍他拿着十倍于因凡蒂诺的年薪。对于这一传闻，国际足联发言人回应称“从未讨论过”，但是随即补充到：“国际足联主席和管理层将会且必然会在这个实体中担任领导角色。”其实，这已经不是因凡蒂诺第一次试图把国际足联资产商业化：2018年他就试图引入沙特和日本背景的投资团体，利用总额250亿美元的投资，用以推动世俱杯的扩军和全球联赛的创建。此番因凡蒂诺卷土重来，换了外包装、换了投资人，但内核其实是一样的——把国际足联的核心资产，变成可以交易的产品。另外，他还像在美加墨世界杯时那样，拉上了他心目中的“最强背书”特朗普，再一次企图进行“公共资源与个人利益的置换”。对了，这里还有一个冷知识：2021年有关于欧洲超级联赛的讨论中，国际足联据传默许了这一方案。当时，因凡蒂诺对于欧超联赛提出过批评。这一次，摩根大通坐在了因凡蒂诺身边，成为他的“智囊团”——果然，还是得“会挑边”！消息一出，不少重量级的机构和个人集体“炸毛”。欧足联发布声明，称FFE“跨越了一条足球管理机构永远不应跨越的红线”。国际足联前主席布拉特亲自下场，他在社媒发文：“国际足联主席与美国总统之间的密切关系已经达到了一个深刻伤害足球的金融维度。没有人有权出售我们的比赛。

E | ”布拉特自己当年就是因为腐败丑闻下台的，现在跳出来说这话，有点讽刺又有点心酸。此外，英国首相伯纳姆也公开发表了自己的批评意见。

F | 虽然FFE从商业逻辑上来说并非没有先例，比如法甲和西甲联赛都已经创建了商业实体，并且与私募基金进行合作，意甲和德甲也有过相关讨论。但是区别在于：它们都不是世界杯。联赛出售股份，卖的是赛事的商业权益。

G | 但是世界杯一直以来都被视为全世界足球的公共财产，是211个成员协会共同拥有的最高舞台。国际足联只是管理者，不是所有人。现在管理者要把被管理资产拿去卖股份，钱还是分给“股东”们花——这不叫商业化，而是一场由管理层发起的“恶意收购”。一旦21%的股份卖出去了，下一步可能就是从21%到49%再到绝对控股，一切都只需要足够长的时间和足够充分的借口。国际足联的章程可以改，理事会的组成可以换，但卖出去的股份收不回来。

H | 世界杯从“大家的”变成“股东的”，可能只有一步之遥。“足球属于球迷”这句话被说了无数遍，但如果没人当回事，它迟早只是一句空话。